Why Standard Chartered predicts BTC will surge to $100,000 before the US election

Source: Blockchain Knight

Geoffrey Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and digital asset research at Standard Chartered, predicts that the price of BTC could surge to $100,000 before the U.S. presidential election in November this year.

In an email to The Block, Kendrick elaborated on the factors driving this prediction and provided a more detailed outlook on BTC's price trajectory.

Kendrick said: "With the US election approaching, I expect the BTC price to reach $100,000, and if Trump wins, the BTC price will reach $150,000 by the end of the year."

He pointed out: "The Biden administration recently showed pragmatism in approving a spot ETH ETF, but then Biden's veto abolished SAB 121's efforts. So Trump is still friendlier than Biden."

Kendrick also emphasized the potential impact of the US non-farm payrolls data to be released tomorrow on the BTC price.

He noted: "Favorable data could spark new all-time highs over the weekend, opening the way to $80,000 by the end of June. If the data is 'friendly', I expect BTC prices to hit new all-time highs over the weekend."

The analyst reiterated his long-term price prediction that BTC will reach $150,000 by the end of the year and $200,000 by the end of 2025.

Kendrick emphasized: "It is worth noting that a price of $150,000 by the end of 2024 would allow BTC to join the $3 trillion market cap queue, following NVDA's market cap of $3 trillion yesterday."

Two months ago, Standard Chartered Bank published a research report that expressed bullishness on the prospects of BTC and Ethereum by the end of 2024 and beyond.

Analysts at the bank expect BTC to reach $150,000, while Ethereum could reach $8,000. The launch of the spot BTC ETF in the United States has supported the above predictions, and the fund has seen a large inflow of funds.

Kendrick and Suki Cooper explained: "Rapid inflows into new spot BTC ETFs have dominated, and most of the inflows are likely to be sticky pension-type flows."

This emphasizes the stability of BTC investment trends.

Standard Chartered Bank's bullish valuation of BTC is based on three key analyses.

First, drawing on the gold market's reaction to the launch of the US gold ETF, the bank expects BTC to rise to the level of $200,000, a 4.3-fold increase from the price before the ETF launch.

Second, at the current gold price, by optimizing an investment portfolio of 80% gold and 20% BTC, the analysis suggests that BTC's level is around $190,000.

Finally, based on a linear extrapolation of the correlation between ETF inflows and BTC prices, assuming that total ETF inflows are around the midpoint of the bank's estimated $75 billion, BTC could reach the level of $250,000.

The bank noted that these analyses all suggest that "$200,000 is the 'correct' price level for BTC by the end of 2025, and is likely to be the new midpoint of the sideways trading range by then."

"The research further suggests that if ETFs continue to have rapid inflows or reserve managers buy BTC, then a surge to $250,000 is possible at some point in 2025."