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OpenAI做芯片不意外 OpenAI不做芯片才意外

01

自主造芯潮最新一个入局者是OpenAI,路透社援引消息人士表示,OpenAI正计划开发专用的AI芯片。

目前这个计划尚处于早期阶段,尚无任何实质性进展。毕竟自研AI芯片的成本和难度不会小于开发像GPT这样的大语言模型,它需要在数年的周期内持续投入数十亿美元才有可能实现,尤其是OpenAI作为一家初创公司,之前并没有开发硬件的相关经验,也就是说这种投入最后未必一定会成功。

但OpenAI布局自研芯片这件事并不让市场感到意外,硅谷和华尔街都在密切关注这家人工智能独角兽的进展,其重点之一就是,在推出了突破性的chatGPT产品后,OpenAI的财务状况与营收规模是否能与其愿景相适应?

这里面涉及若干阻止OpenAI扩大规模的卡脖子环节,芯片就是其中之一。目前OpenAI通过与微软合作,直接和间接拥有了巨量英伟达显卡提供的算力。OpenAI和英伟达的合作关系可以追溯到它成立初期——黄仁勋赠送了世界上第一台DGX超级计算机给OpenAI以研究使用。

但这种合作是有代价的,特别是英伟达在人工智能算力领域的独占地位影响了OpenAI的研发进度。CEO Altman曾不止一次表示,OpenAI算力紧张,这不仅让大模型运营成本急剧攀升,也影响了新模型的开发。

一旦OpenAI拥有自研芯片技术,将显著利好其人工智能的开发进程,包括大幅降低成本、更直接精确控制研发进度,以及摆脱英伟达和微软对其的各种直接或间接干预控制,OpenAI的不少算力是通过微软的Azure平台提供的。

02

实际上,摆脱英伟达算力瓶颈是所有大模型玩家的共同诉求,微软也不例外。在风传数年后,有消息指出,微软自研名为雅典娜的人工智能芯片最早将于下个月西雅图举行的年度开发者大会上推出。

目前人们对雅典娜的相关信息知之甚少,甚至最后芯片的名字究竟叫不叫雅典娜也不确定。只知道这款芯片是专为人工智能大模型开发和数据中心所服务,人们一度认为这款芯片是微软和AMD合作开发,但这个消息后来被微软否认。

据悉这款芯片已经进入小范围测试阶段,微软和OpenAI的工程师都已经在试用这款芯片以验证其性能。

微软的雅典娜计划从2019年开始实施,相比于谷歌的TPU以及亚马逊云的自研芯片开发计划,微软的进度显得有些落后。外界关心微软拿出的芯片解决方案究竟在性能上有多少提升,以及更重要的,这将如何影响微软和OpenAI的合作关系。

OpenAI和微软的合作在最初被解读为强强联合,然而很快这种判断就被证明过于乐观了。两方人马在模型开发和客户资源等领域都存在竞争,呈现出一种“又打又拉”的复杂嵌套关系,现在这种关系来到了自研芯片领域。

事实证明,OpenAI不想完全倚赖微软提供的资源,试图独立开发AI芯片是一个显著的动作。

03

现在问题回到了原点,如果OpenAI确定了自研芯片的大方向,那么它最有可能的下一步行动是什么呢?许多人把目光投向了OpenAI的投资版图,毕竟CEO Altman之前就是著名孵化器Y Combinator的老板,直接收购某个芯片公司也许是一个不错的选择。

Atomic Semi 走入人们的视线。它拿到了OpenAI Stsrtup Fund的投资,目前估值超过1亿美金,官网上的介绍指出这家公司的愿景是旨在建造“任何东西”,它的两位创始人,Sam Zeloof和Jim Keller,前者以在自己家车库里手搓芯片而成为网红,后者则有着极为光鲜的半导体从业履历,领导了AMD最早的Zen架构开发,AMD借此实现处理器领域的绝地反击。

实际上,在AMD、英特尔、博通和苹果公司都干过的Jim Keller还是另一家人工智能芯片初创公司Tenstorrent的CEO,这家7轮融资超过3亿美元的公司产品直接针对的就是大模型训练和推理领域,芯片采用了RISC-V架构,就在10月初,Tenstorrent宣布了和三星的合作,三星将为其代工生产芯片。

因此从总体上看,考虑到Sam Altman在创投圈里的影响力和人脉,OpenAI想要下好这步自研芯片的先手棋,还是有挺多选项可供选择,而另起炉灶的好处之一就是可以甩开架构和兼容性方面的包袱,特别是可以推出有极强针对性的产品,比如基于RISC-V架构的加速芯片看上去就是个不错的选择。

当然,本来OpenAI还有另一种更为稳妥的方法推动自研芯片的步伐,那就是和其它大厂展开合作。但微软的雅典娜计划已经清楚显示,OpenAI似乎更倾向于完全地自力更生,这符合这家公司的一贯风格。

前不久的另一则传闻可以佐证这一点:有传言Sam Altman和孙正义以及苹果前首席设计师Jony Ive正在策划构建新的“AI硬件”,这显然也是一个OpenAI之前不曾涉足的领域,可见OpenAI总的策略是基于强大的大模型能力,在所有的相关环节都进行自主开发——这俨然是一个打造巨无霸企业的思路了。

04

自研芯片浪潮持续高涨,现在所有的大型云计算厂商都在紧锣密鼓推动自研芯片的发展,最重要的原因是那句“天下苦英伟达久矣”。

垄断地位其实都在其次,关键是英伟达本身的产能也不够,且还在搞一些类似奢侈品的“配货”制度,这当然引起大厂的不满。特别是随着英伟达在这一波人工智能浪潮中赚的盆满钵满,黄仁勋主动投资了一票相关的初创企业,这些企业都有一个共同特点,它们都牢牢拥抱英伟达的硬件生态,这些绿厂嫡系在未来都会是云市场强有力的竞争者,大厂们当然不会放任这种情况做大。

自研芯片是一条必由之路,而且它也并非完全没有打破英伟达垄断的可能。自研芯片能更好地根据自身的需求定制相关性能,这或许对云厂商来说意义还不够明显,但对于OpenAI这种人工智能公司来说好处就很大了,它不需要去考虑数据中心里各种用户的复杂需求(比如带宽),只需要专心提升并行计算效率就可以。而对许多芯片初创公司来说,这波自研芯片潮也是个巨大的机会,尤其是基于RISC-V架构的芯片,在这方面,中国作为这一开源架构最大的玩家之一,甚至还拥有先发优势。

尽管目前来看,尚无人能真正实质性挑战英伟达的领导地位,但整个人工智能芯片市场显然已经处于剧烈波动的前夜,变化即将来临。

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