Bernstein: Politics Unlikely to Steer SEC's Decision on Ethereum ETF, Insights Revealed

The recent approval by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of spot Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has sparked discussions regarding the underlying motivations for this decision. Analysts at Bernstein, a prominent research and brokerage firm, suggest that the move was unlikely driven by political pressure, despite some initial theories to the contrary.

Political Pressure Theory on SEC's Ether ETF Approval Loses Credibility amid Biden's Actions

One theory posited that the SEC's sudden favorable stance towards spot Ether ETFs in May was influenced by increased political pressure from Democrats, aiming to appeal to swing voters ahead of the upcoming U.S. elections in November. This narrative began losing credibility after President Joe Biden vetoed the SEC’s Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) No. 121 repeal bill. Analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra from Bernstein noted this development in a June 3 report, highlighting that the political pressure argument seemed less plausible.

SEC's Pragmatic Approval: Similarities with Bitcoin ETFs and Regulatory Framework

Bernstein analysts believe that the SEC's decision was more likely influenced by a pragmatic approach to avoid potential legal battles. The regulatory setup for spot Ether ETFs is similar to that of spot Bitcoin ETFs, sharing the same spot and futures correlation and benefiting from existing Ether futures products on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This setup reinforced Ether’s status as a commodity, making the approval of the ETF a logical step for the SEC to take.

Surprise Approval of Spot Ether ETFs Sparks Market Speculation and Anticipation

The approval came as a surprise to many in the industry, including spot Ether ETF applicants who had anticipated a possible denial given the SEC staff's lack of communication leading up to the decision. Bernstein reported that ETF issuers were instructed to refile their 19b-4 applications within 24 hours, just four days before the approval date, catching many off guard.

Bernstein expects that the introduction of spot Ether ETFs will not see the same level of fund flows as Bitcoin ETFs. However, there is anticipated pent-up demand from the same market participants who have shown interest in Bitcoin ETFs. The approval of these ETFs is expected to have a positive impact on Ether's price action as the launch date approaches.

Bitcoin and Ether’s performance relative to traditional assets since 2022. Source: Bernstein

The SEC's official approval on May 23 included applications from major players such as VanEck, BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, ARK 21Shares, Invesco Galaxy, and Bitwise. These issuers are now awaiting the SEC's sign-off on their S-1 registration statements, a process that could take weeks to months.

While initial theories suggested political motivations behind the SEC's approval of spot Ether ETFs, analysts at Bernstein believe the decision was based on practical regulatory considerations. This move represents a significant development for the cryptocurrency industry, with potential positive implications for Ether’s market performance as the launch of these ETFs draws closer.